Data shows that in 2024 Russia continued to use the Arctic as an important transportation corridor for its oil and gas resources and made new breakthroughs in the transportation of liquefied natural gas (LNG).
In 2024, Russia transported 21.86 million tons of LNG through the Northern Sea Route, an increase of 8.6% compared to the previous year, with a growth of 1.73 million tons. This figure set a new historical record.
Russia’s LNG accounted for nearly 58% of the total export cargo volume on the Northern Sea Route, remaining the primary export commodity. Meanwhile, crude oil shipments also increased, reaching 8.1 million tons, equivalent to approximately 61 million barrels, marking a 4% rise compared to previous figures. Condensate shipments saw a more significant growth, surging by 22% to a total of 1.32 million tons. The annual cargo transportation volume on the Northern Sea Route reached 37.9 million tons, setting yet another record.
Looking ahead, Rosneft’s “Vostok Oil” project is expected to commence production within the next 12-24 months. According to the plan, crude oil shipments could significantly increase to 100 million tons annually by the 2030s. However, the Northern Sea Route currently faces some challenges. Due to a lack of sufficient ice-class LNG carriers and tankers, coupled with Western sanctions preventing Russia from relying on Asian shipyards to replenish its fleet, the growth of its transportation capacity will be constrained in the coming years. Nevertheless, during the summer months, low-ice-class or conventional tankers, LNG carriers, and container ships can utilize the Northern Sea Route, potentially boosting transportation volumes during that period.
It is worth noting that sanctions have significantly impacted energy projects in Russia’s Arctic region. Novatek’s Yamal LNG plant continues to transport approximately 35 shipments annually to Western Europe using its ice-class shuttle tankers.
However, the sanctioned Arctic LNG 2 plant loaded only three shipments to Russia’s Vitino port in the autumn of 2024. If Western sanctions persist, the plant’s export volumes may remain at extremely low levels. Before the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the imposition of Western sanctions, the Arctic LNG 2 plant had planned to transport 20 million tons of LNG by 2026, a target that now seems unattainable.
Additionally, according to a decree issued by Russian President Vladimir Putin in 2018, the original target for the Northern Sea Route’s cargo volume was set at 80 million tons by 2024 and 110 million tons by 2025. In comparison, the actual transportation volume in 2024 still falls significantly short of the planned target.
Despite this, the potential of the Northern Sea Route is gradually becoming evident. In the summer of 2024, a Panamax container ship traversed the 5,000-nautical-mile Northern Sea Route in just six days without encountering ice conditions. The journey from St. Petersburg Port in the Baltic Sea to Shanghai Port in China took just over three weeks, fully demonstrating the route’s navigational advantages during the summer months. In the future, its role in international trade and transportation may further increase.